2019 profits analysis
and 2020 forecast for p2p loans

2019 investment data analysis

The goal of this post is to summarize the trend of my 2019 investments, analyze the trends at a macro level and share my ideas on the 2020 outlook. I would be very curious to read your vision for 2020 in the comments .

Total invested sum

As you can see, the invested capital has gone up from around 32K to almost 51k in the last 12 months with a formidable increase of 61.3%.

Obviously it is not just interest but also new capitals and subscription referral bonuses; below we will see how much these factors have influenced this sudden growth in total invested capital.

The capital distribution between the different platforms is quite diversified with none exceeding 33% (1/3 of the total).

Monthly interests

On the left chart you can see that the monthly interest income went from € 215 per month to € 580 per month with a stratospheric percentage increase of 170%.

On the right chart you will be able to see how the average interest percentage is slightly increased from 12.3% to 12.5% with an increase of 0.2%. The highest percentage platform remain, like last year, Grupeer. Mintos and Lenndy are on the other side slowly falling, especially in the final part of the year.

The trend is however very positive thanks to the synergistic large increase in the capital invested and the slight increase in the percentage of interest.

Referrals

By referral inputs I mean those achieved by presenting a new user to one of the platforms to which I am registered to.

Over the past 9 months, there has been an interesting increase in referral revenues. This rise has had an important impact on the invested capital growth which in turn is co-responsible for the increase in the monthly interest received.

2020 Forecasts

Assuming that the current trends continue, I should expect a 2020 that is not only beautiful, but fantastic.

Unfortunately, however, my feeling is that the market is not infinite and that, looking at the data from many platforms, a lot of new investors have entered this niche this year. This is causing a greater supply of money, thereby creating much more competition among investors. The reactions that I saw by the various platforms, in increasing order of danger, have been:

• Frequent lack of projects to invest in, because everything is fully booked (Lenndy). In this case, interest and risk remained unchanged.
• Lowering the interest rate given to investors and increasing the platform and or lender earnings (Mintos, Robocash). The percentage of interest decreases but the risk does not.
• Raising the level of risk for the same interests (Mintos, Grupeer). In this case the risk increased without a corresponding increase in interest.

My intentions for 2020 are therefore to reduce my share in Grupeer where I am very exposed, slightly reduce the Envestio one and move these money to a couple of new lenders, possibly not baltic based, to better differentiate my investments at a territorial level. I would also like to lower my maximum investment quota to 25% per platform from the current 33% in order to decrease the default risk of a platform.

And what are your intentions or ideas for 2020? Let me know in the comments.